Market Commentary

Volatility is a symptom that people have no idea of the underlying value. Jeremy Grantham This quote from a man who nearly lost his firm during the bull market leading up to the 2000-2002 bear market is, in our humble opinion, a perfect explanation of the third quarter!  The market rocketed off the June lows…

Whoever watched the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap. Ecclesiastes 11:4 Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine did not end, inflation did not dissipate, and Covid-19 has a new variant!  We suppose it follows that the second quarter of 2022 was a rough continuation of the first, ultimately culminating in…

Conquering Bond Bears “I was absolutely unemotional about numbers.  Losses did not have an effect on me because I viewed them as purely probability driven, which meant sometimes you came up with a loss.  Bad days, bad weeks, bad months never impacted the way I approached markets the next day.” James Leitner – Flacon Management…

War is mainly a catalogue of blunders Winston Churchill War in Europe, mounting inflationary fears, and Covid-19—clearly a recipe for a bearish first quarter.  In fact, following new highs set by most indexes in the first week of January, the first quarter was one long string of bad news and increased volatility.  Equity markets which…

No matter how far you have gone on a wrong road, turn back Turkish Proverb The fourth quarter continued the upward trend that has been in place since the beginning of 2021.  Markets rallied off the lows of September hitting multiple new highs throughout the quarter.  Equity strength was broad-based with virtually all major areas…

Federal Reserve Comments & Projections In response to economic fears from COVID-19, the U.S. Federal Reserve initiated a series of Fed Funds rate cuts (including an emergency rate cut) to bring the Fed Funds target rate to 0.00% – 0.25% as of March 15, 2020.  After a short period of shrinking, the Federal Reserve’s balance…

If you want to keep on learning you must keep on risking failure – all your life John W. Gardner We do not believe if we do not live and work according to our belief Heidi Willis The soul is dyed the color of its thoughts. Think kon those things that are in line with…

Market risk tends to be poorly rewarded when market valuations are rich and interest rates are rising.” -John P. Hussman, Ph. D. Relative to Q1 of 2021, Q2 was decidedly anticlimactic!  However, the positive news for investors was that the market continued to rally and did so in a decidedly undramatic fashion. Volatility declined to…

There have been three great inventions since the beginning of time: fire, the wheel, and central banking. -Will Rogers The first quarter of 2021 witnessed a dramatic extension of the 2020 global equity rally.  Led by smaller capitalization equities, virtually every sector of public equity markets moved higher during the quarter.  Drama at the capitol,…

We should never despair, our situation before has been unpromising and has changed for the better, so I trust, it will again. If new difficulties arise, we must only put forth new exertions and proportion our efforts to the exigency of the times. -George Washington Regardless of your political affiliation, the fourth quarter of 2020…