Market Commentary

“Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards.” – Soren Kierkegaard  “There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything.” – Henry Kaufman (German-American economist) to Robert Lenzner in Forbes 10-19-1998 who added, “With two Nobel Prize winners in the house, Long-Term…

I sincerely believe with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale. – Thomas Jefferson (To John Taylor 1816) If everybody is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.…

Readers who have followed the financial news over the past few days have seen headlines about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).  We wanted to provide a brief commentary about what happened and address investor concerns about the safety of their capital or any fears that a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is…

There’s no way to sugarcoat it.  We’re currently in the worst period for bonds in history.  As of October 31, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate is down 15.7% year-to-date.  The Bloomberg Global Aggregate is faring even worse, with a year-to-date decline of 20.4%. Bonds are supposed to be a steady asset class.  Why are we experiencing…

Volatility is a symptom that people have no idea of the underlying value. Jeremy Grantham This quote from a man who nearly lost his firm during the bull market leading up to the 2000-2002 bear market is, in our humble opinion, a perfect explanation of the third quarter!  The market rocketed off the June lows…

Whoever watched the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap. Ecclesiastes 11:4 Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine did not end, inflation did not dissipate, and Covid-19 has a new variant!  We suppose it follows that the second quarter of 2022 was a rough continuation of the first, ultimately culminating in…

Conquering Bond Bears “I was absolutely unemotional about numbers.  Losses did not have an effect on me because I viewed them as purely probability driven, which meant sometimes you came up with a loss.  Bad days, bad weeks, bad months never impacted the way I approached markets the next day.” James Leitner – Flacon Management…

War is mainly a catalogue of blunders Winston Churchill War in Europe, mounting inflationary fears, and Covid-19—clearly a recipe for a bearish first quarter.  In fact, following new highs set by most indexes in the first week of January, the first quarter was one long string of bad news and increased volatility.  Equity markets which…

No matter how far you have gone on a wrong road, turn back Turkish Proverb The fourth quarter continued the upward trend that has been in place since the beginning of 2021.  Markets rallied off the lows of September hitting multiple new highs throughout the quarter.  Equity strength was broad-based with virtually all major areas…